, , , , , , , , , ,

Rand Paul goes to Washington : Proof that fruit does travel…

So the election came and went.  The result was somewhat less disastrous for Obama than some had predicted, expected or indeed hoped for.  Sure he has lost the House and limps a bit in the Senate but all is not lost.

Because you see the Republicans have now won so much they are bought in on what happens in the future.  (Yes I know the mess is all their fault but people have short memories).

If they decide to block everything to spite Obama then when it all goes belly up – as it might well still do- they will get as much of the blame as the Democrats at the next election, and given the mood of the US, that will be pretty bloody.  The votes last night were not for the Republicans or against the Democrats so much as they were against anyone who had been in politics when the problems happened.

So, the Republicans may make a point to start with, and then join in some bi-partisan stuff to get things moving.

The Tea party faction can still be over-ruled.  But only until the next time.

And it only works if you think Governments can actually influence anything on this mess.  They are trying out QE2 this evening and no one has a clue if it will work or not.  There is nothing left if it doesn’t.

Presentationally Obama needs to be more approachable and frankly a bit more cuddly.  This stiff reserved school masterly bit, which would go down well in Britain, doesn’t play well in America where they like their leaders as sentimental, heart on the sleeve types, who can be relied on to sniff up a tear for the cameras at the sight of a flag unfurling or a troop homecoming.  He has to show he can feel the pain.  Cos boy is there going to be a lot coming.

 The tests are still to come.

Can unemployment be moved down from 10% or 12% by 2012.  Me? I don’t think that’s going to be at all easy.  Manufacturing exports is all well and good but everyone round the globe says they are exporting their way out of this recession.  So who is buying?

The real elephant in the room at the moment isn’t Republican.  It’s Housing – the root of this whole bubble.  There are huge numbers of foreclosures sweeping the nation and exercising the likes of The Huffington Post.  They are not going to stop.  The Banks can’t leave this, they need to recover their assets and flog them off for what they can get, to rebuild their war chests for the next big hit, and that is going to be very, very hard on families everywhere.  We will see this too, in Britain.

The banks are bracing themselves against the crash that they know is coming on the housing market when it readjusts.  Flooding the market with cheap foreclosures though just guarantees a collapse in house prices.   When interest rates go up (which they will)  all those people with negative equity in houses they are only just affording, will default and we will see another round of foreclosures which in turn will deflate the property market further.  It will be like falling down a flight of stairs in slow motion.

This is going to be very painful.  He is going to have to be very, very good to save this one.

So will Hillary come to the rescue in 2012 and save us?

Copyright David Macadam 2012