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Karl Rove & Co

The map above marks the official start of the statistical season in the limping never-ending, dragging stumble that is “the race to the White House”.  Karl Rove & Co have produced their first 2012 Electoral College Map showing the distribution of these all important faceless voters.  Because, remember, you don’t actually vote for who will be President, that would be far too democratic to be left to the electorate in America.  My goodness that would be the sort of socialist nonsense they get up to in Putin’s Russia.  Oh no, in America the people vote instead for 538 unknown suits in darkened rooms far away, and who in turn choose the President for you.  They are The Electoral College.

If you ever wondered what was wrong with democracy in America then you’d not be far off starting here.

To get to be President, the winner needs 270 of the 538 electors that are available.  The split, adjusted state by state for this year’s election from previous election maps to reflect demographics, is shown on the map below.  Each state gets the number of electors marked.

So, according to Karl Rove & Co, at the moment it looks like the map at the top gives eighteen states for Obama with a total of 220 electors, and fifteen states for Romney with 93 electors.  Seventeen states are a toss-up and 225 are for these.  But look carefully, it’s not quite as it might seem.

South Carolina is disputable and Arizona is close?   Really?  And are we to believe that $1,000,0000,000 dollars is going to be spent this summer on a few thousand people in a handful – maybe six – states?

Possibly.  But we might also remember that Karl Rove & Co are a firm that deal with lobbying for cash and their maps have a fascination with playing mind games with possible donors.

Interesting certainly but let’s not put too much trust in them quite yet?

Copyright David Macadam 2012