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Mrs Clinton has written off around £14 million in the last declared quarter, in a desperate bid to stand still against the surge in support for her Republican rival Donald Trump.

All the while Trump has blossomed on his demands regarding Muslims to be banned from the USA following the IS inspired shootings at San Bernadino. The more he shouts, the more he flounces, the ruder he is, the bigger grows his support. Money in the form of small donations from individuals is pouring in.

It has been estimated by the likes of Britain’s Daily Express that 100,000 individuals have contributed an average of £40.00 each even though Trump has largely self-financed his presidential campaign so far.
Polls are showing that his anti-Muslim stance (whatever we may think of this) now has 55% of voters seeing “The Donald” as a serious contender for the Presidency.

Rand Paul is all but spent out. Ben Carson is sinking fast, has lost half his money already and is reduced to saying silly things like the pyramids were granary stores, or that he believes in creationism or that ISIS can be comparable to the Founding Fathers, all in a desperate attempt to hold onto his evangelical home ground. Poor ol’ Ted Cruz by contrast is way, way behind dragging himself along at 15%. And as for Jeb? Well it seems the Trump push is costing Bush very dear indeed. Our one-time front runner and white knight for the party has spent the thick end of £35, million and for the life of him cannot get above 10%. This must surely be concerning his financial supporters who will start wondering if the bold boy has it in him to struggle through. His lack-a-daisical TV performances will be a further concern.

In any event the opposition has stopped laughing at Trump.

The whole matter is complicated by the fact that no candidate like Trump has ever won. Others like Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz fit analysis more easily, reminding one of the George McGovern’s and Barry Goldwater’s of our time, but Trump is not boxable.

When will we have a better idea? Well the graph below shows us that historically the electorate, save for geeks like us, do not really pay attention until a few weeks before the Primaries. As these start off with Iowa on February 1st and New Hampshire on 9th February and with Nevada, South Carolina and Washington following at the end of the month on the 20th these are all but with us.

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If these early Primaries show a clear winner then the race may be more or less over, but, if as I suspect, each of the front runners picks up one primary each – and none is knocked completely out………..then 2016 is going to be very interesting.

Copyright David Macadam 2015

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