So now that most of the smoke has cleared from the battle of Iowa we can look forward to NH. And what might we find after that? Well, as New Hamshire’s favourite Governor John Sununnu once quipped ” Iowa picks corn; New Hampshire picks Presidents”.
As all the Polls are a bit iffy my shottie at the truth is every bit as good as anyone else’s.
First let’s look at the Democrats. Oh dear, oh dear! Poor old Hills, she has had a terrible fright last night. Having your success decided quite literally on the turn of a coin is no way to run for President. You know she’s been rattled as she is starting to sound like a progressive all of a sudden, trying on Bernie’s clothes. She now realises she is stuck with Bernie biting her legs for the long run. And to make matters worse Bernie is well ahead in the polls for NH and even if they are out by ten points or so looks certain to win here.
The Republicans have a more nuanced problem. Sure they showed that flamboyant-smart-arse-rabble-rousing-embarrassment Trump up at Iowa but are less certain to do so again in New Hampshire. Their win in Iowa is further slightly tainted as Cruz was never really the establishment’s front man of choice. The money men of Wall Street would favour Rubio but he only came third. Rubio’s camp are of course trying to make out that means that he wins, on the spurious grounds that Trump and Cruz are fighting for the small slice of the electorate and once the rabble at the back of the line – Bush, Christie etc are shoved off he will be the beneficiary. Well perhaps, but to win nomination Rubio will still need to be winning some actual Primaries and if Trump does get his act together then it will be harder for Rubio to get the traction he thinks he has as we move into the Southern states.
At the end of New Hampshire next week we might very well see each of the big four sitting pretty with a win each. The betting thereafter is that the rest of the field has a more and more difficult task staying in the game, and money and resources will haemorrhage from the deadwood who will be bundled off the stage, flowing in a mighty stream to the real players. A clear out is on the cards, with each ex candidate vowing grovelling fealty to his (or her) leader hoping for an ambassadorship or cabinet post in the fullness of time.
And that might mean something really exciting for us sad nerds. A few more rounds like that would mean a pair of truly open Nominating Conventions for both parties come the summer. Something I have not seen since I was a child. Events where the suits and the 1% have lost their control, and the people and their delegates will make their own choice?
Revolutionary if you ask me.
Anyone want to up the odds on assassination attempts before Convention like in the good old days?
Copyright David Macadam 2016