The British have stamps for it.
There is a major panic happening throughout the world. It is fuelled entirely by hysterical media, and manufacturers of cotton face masks. The bloody fool media are working everyone into a right old lather because – shock horror – it’s winter and there is a nasty flu doing the rounds.
Time for a little sit down and a cuppa tea.
Covid19 is a highly, highly infectious cousin of influenza and it is sweeping the world. Don’t listen to the NHS spokesperson or Boris. ,Despite whatever measures Governments take, nothing will stop it. Indeed, given that it has a two to three week incubation period, and people can be infectious before showing symptoms it is already here.
Conservative figures give us an infection rate of 70%. Ish, it could be higher or lower but for the sake of this post let’s say 70%. That means in Britain (pop 66 million give or take) a hit rate of oh 46,200,00 people. Which looks pretty dire eh? That’s the bad news. But infectious does NOT mean deadly. Let me suggest the rule of fives which might make this more acceptable.
It is NOT the Black Death, Justinian’s plague or any kind of slate wiper. TB kills 1.45 million EVERY year (4672 in England), Malaria kills 750,000 every year, year after year after year and no one breaks sweat about either.
Of the 46 million infected by Corvid 19 four-fifths or 37 million will only get a bad cold. Many may not even notice they have it. And it doesn’t really affect babies or children. It only really kicks in on the 55 years old and up. Of the one-fifth left, four fifths of that number or 9 million ish, will have a really nasty dose of the flu. By this I mean a week in bed feeling dreadful, followed by a week wrapped up in a duvet watching box sets on Netflix. Nasty certainly, deadly no.
For that final one-fifth of that one last one-fifth, an admittedly large 1.8 million or thereabouts its really serious, and they are definitely in the departure lounge of life. However, it will only really pose a perilous disease if the patient is old, and has some underlying condition that already marks them out. IE they were already in that departure lounge. Cancers, lung conditions, immune suppressant conditions, general weakness, poor general condition. These are at risk. So less the slate-wiper and more the perch-pusher.
Most of the population that fall into this category are elderly and non-economically active. And this marks Corvid 19 as significantly different from Spanish Flu which many in media try to compare it to. Spanish flu hit young active adults in their twenties. After their deaths this left the population with large numbers of children and old folk to support depressing economic recovery after the First World War.
Which brings me to a view that will doubtless attract criticism – but hey isn’t that what blogging is all about?
Even if 500,000 die (a huge number I know, and appalling for their relatives) it will engender an economic renaissance. The old and chronically sick, people who still smoke, those most susceptible to Covid19 are presently filling the hospitals of the country, they occupy the old folk homes and care institutions. They are by far and away major occupiers of social housing, and if they do die out then what happens?
The Government immediately is relieved of paying vast numbers of people a pension. Benefit payments topple. The NHS suddenly solves its bed blocking problem. The NHS is also relieved of an enormous pharmacological bill, and social housing suddenly has a huge number of properties to offer that equally huge number of young economically active people waiting for homes. These homes will be crying out for updating, refitting new kitchens and carpets all driving the economy forward.
Those who were well off are good for their Death Taxes, and its all a boost to the Housing Market.
So not the end of the world, nor the terrible economy killer. And remember there will be all those lovely holiday bargains out there for August to look forward to.
Copyright David Macadam 2020